If the global betting market is any indication, Sports Talk Radio and every other pundit have been exaggerating a polarizing NFL topic this week.
Indianapolis Colts Jeff stunned the football world on Saturday by appointing him as interim head coach, even though the former Colts center has no coaching experience at the college or professional level. The move was condemned and ridiculed across the board.
However, following the announcement, fast bookmakers backed Indy, which tours the Las Vegas Raiders on Sundays. The Raiders are now 4.5-point favorites after opening at 6.5. Las Vegas has a lot of issues of its own, including a worse record, but they at least have a veteran quarterback in Derek Carr, opposite the Colts’ 24-year-old Sam Ehlinger.
“We will adjust (the line) if they announce their only NFL-quality quarterback on their roster, named Starter,” Jason Scott, vice president of BetMGM Trading, told ESPN, pointing to the veteran QB. Matt Ryan, “We all know that Saturday can be the best head coach.”
That’s what makes this situation so compelling. We all recognize the intricacies of the league and admire magicians like Bill Belichick and even young offensive minds like Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel. However, the betting community has so far reacted negatively to a novice head coach and brand new play-collar in Parcs Frazier, who has never held that responsibility in any capacity.
“With this team, it doesn’t matter. They already suck,” Ed Salmons, Superbook’s chief football oddsmaker, told ESPN. And while nothing is so simple or even binary, it can be unreasonable to automatically assume that an inexperienced coach will result in a dropoff. Indy is 0-9 against the first half point of the season, which I would argue is a clear sign of an unprepared team.
The Raiders have already set an NFL record by leading 17 points three times this season. But the silver lining is that he has the talent to build those leads, while Indy is lucky enough to score three scores in any given game. Ehlinger should not have started in the NFL and that margin is 13.1 points in favor of Vegas in ESPN’s Football Power Index. So, no matter who is coaching, I am keeping the point.
numbers you need to know
as i indicated Last weekOf course, the betting market still believes in Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, even though they own the NFL’s worst cover percentage (2-6-1 ATS). In fact, Tampa is 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games. Perhaps a change of scenery will put this race on hold, as the Bucs face the Seattle Seahawks as 2.5-point favorites in Munich, Germany.
Once again, fast money came on Tampa Bay, which briefly expanded the point to three points. This inspired another respectable wager, but this time on the Seahawks, the line was moved back to 2.5 points. As I’ve indicated, three is the most important number in NFL handicapping, which is why professional bookmakers are stubborn about finding the right line. Since extra-point distance went back in 2015, 14% of games have been decided by exactly three points. The next most common odds of victory is seven points (9%).
I respect Tampa’s defense but I don’t understand why they are preferred. The offense remains a mess, despite Brady’s late game heroism last week. I think about Seattle a lot, and the coaching staff has deployed Geno Smith effectively and he has done well. To be honest, the betting market can be wrong. If the Bucs lost, they would become just the second team in the Super Bowl era to have a losing record through 10 games despite being the favorites in each game.
week line move
When an MVP betting favorite has an uncertain position for the game, the betting market will certainly see that effect. The Buffalo Bills started the week as an 8.5-point home favorite over the Minnesota Vikings. A respectable bet came on the ‘dog’, which began to reduce the point spread. Around the same time, news of Josh Allen’s injury to his right elbow surfaced. Oddsmakers started further down the line and a reputable bookmaker even placed a Vikings +3.5 bet on Friday, leading one oddsmaker to believe Allen would not play. After all, in these situations, smart money usually represents concrete information.
However, the winds began to change on Saturday, although Allen has only practiced once this week. The Bills did not activate third-stringer Matt Barkley, meaning only two quarterbacks are active for the game. This suggests that the Allen will be available with a backup case keyname. While the star QB is officially listed as doubtful, the point spread has climbed back to 6.5 points.
The Wise People were heavily involved in the line movement surrounding the Vikings-Bills game. Additionally, they shifted the market to other games. As always, it’s important to remind everyone that the numbers they grab are rarely around. Also, sometimes we see double-sided professional money on a particular game.
However, based on my sources, all I hear is that the fastest bets for this NFL card are: Texans +7 and +6.5, Browns +3.5, Colts +6.5, Rams-3, Jaguars/Chiefs over 50.5, Cowboys /Packers 43 and 49ers -7 over.