Will Paul Goldschmidt’s first MVP help put him on track for the Hall of Fame?

Will Paul Goldschmidt's first MVP help put him on track for the Hall of Fame?

Paul Goldschmidt Of Cardinals The 2022 NL MVP has won, despite falling behind a bit late in the season it looked like he was on his way to the Triple Crown. Still, it was a worthy debut MVP campaign for a player who had been close to winning several times before.

He finished the season hitting .317/.404/.578 (180 OPS+) with 41 doubles, 35 homers, 115 RBI, 106 runs, seven steals and 7.8 WAR. It was one of the best seasons of his career and his best OPS+, although his WAR was higher in 2015.

The seven-time All-Star has four Gold Gloves and five Silver Sluggers (the most ever for a first baseman). He finished third in the first MVP voting and was runner-up twice. Winning MVP definitely boosts his Hall of Fame chances and this is his first. It’s always nice to be able to flash a little more hardware when voters are considering the selections.

Here’s how his Hall of Fame resume is rounding out.

Rates are statistics. Goldschmidt is a career .295 hitter with a .391 on-base percentage and .527 slugging percentage. The 145 OPS+ and 144 wRC+ show how well he’s been an offensive tackle throughout his career. Simply put, he hit for average while excelling at both hitting on base and hitting for power.

Now, let’s keep in mind that Goldschmidt is still in the middle of his compilation before looking at the vote count data. He’s 34, so he doesn’t have an eternity here. With his bat-on-ball skills, the year he was 34 and the existence of a universal designated hitter, though, he certainly has more productive years to come.

Overall, Goldschmidt now had 1,750 hits, 382 doubles, 315 home runs, 1,042 RBIs, 1,045 runs scored, and 147 stolen bases.

There is a possibility here that Goldschmidt will not hit the biggest benchmarks (3,000 hits or 500 home runs), but he is well on his way to being in the 2,000s in hits and could reach 2,500. He’s a good bet to hit 400 home runs and maybe reach the 450 range. There is a slight chance that he can get to 1,500 each with RBIs and runs scored.

Projecting accurately where career numbers end is an incredibly difficult task. The truncated 2020 season is hewing so closely to the past that it becomes even more difficult when we use Bill James’ “Favorite Toy” tool. We’ll do it anyway and proportion his 2020 stats to a full season.

Here’s where Goldschmidt ends up:

  • Hits: 2,446
  • Doubles: 535
  • Home Runs: 437
  • RBI: 1,442
  • Runs: 1,449

On HIT, 3,000 is not required either way. In fact, only 13 first basemen have ever reached 2,500. Jeff Bagwell and Jim Thome are in the 2,300 range.

Only 11 first basemen have amassed 500 doubles, so crossing that mark would be a nice boost, even if it isn’t needed.

The home run total may seem low for the position, but only 19 first basemen have topped 400 homers. Somewhere between Tony Perez and Orlando Cepeda’s 379 to Jeff Bagwell’s 449 seems perfectly acceptable.

For run production, only seven modern-era first basemen have topped 1,350 in both runs and RBIs: albert pujolsRafael Palmeiro, Jimmy Fox, Eddie Murray, Lou Gehrig, Bagwell and Todd Helton.

Looking at the landscape of current Hall of Fame first basemen, Goldschmidt isn’t too far off from having a Hall of Fame resume in JAWS and WAR as well.

At JAWS, he ranks 18th all-time at first base, two spots behind the average Hall of Famer but ahead of Hank Greenberg, George Sisler, Bill Terry and Harmon Killebrew. And in the back you’ll see David Ortiz, Perez, Cepeda, and a few others. On his current trajectory, there is a reasonable chance that Goldschmidt will go above average Hall of Fame first baseman and in a group that has Thome, miguel cabrera, Joy Voto and Willie McCovey.

Again, that’s just in JAWS. Obviously, there are many other considerations. Sure, it’s strong company, and it’s a huge needle-mover, especially for the generation of Hall voters who will decide Goldschmidt’s fate (I’m in that group, to be clear).

MVP moves the needle as well. He is on pace to be in good company in the vote count statistics and his career slash line is very impressive. There’s an argument that Goldschmidt was already on the Hall of Fame track and that this season’s MVP offers a little extra boost.

Data Source www.cbssports.com

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